https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/ eng-GB https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-is-the-turning-point-in-sight After such a painful 2022, the start of this year has brought investors much cheer as all asset classes staged a strong rally. However, is this yet another relief rally or the start of serious momentum? This week we take a look at some of the evidence to try and see beyond the gloom. Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-price-rises-finally-begin-to-slow Inflation has dominated the financial news over the last 18 months. The latest data released shows rising prices are beginning to slow. However, with inflation still in double digits, it remains the biggest threat to savers wealth. In this week’s update, we go back to basics on inflation, explaining why it remains so important to savers’ and investors. Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-is-the-uk-back-in-fashion Last year, we witnessed the worst year for bonds in history. Stock markets also suffered a difficult year, except for the UK stock market, which despite the high level of volatility, finished the year ahead of their peers. Now that loose monetary policy and low interest rates have come to an end, will the UK market remain popular and outperform others? Or is this just a coincidence of timing? Why does diversification remain so important for investors? Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-stick-or-twist In a quiet period for macro-economic data, investors remain nervous about the road ahead. Later this month, central banks meet again to assess whether the aggressive increase in rates over the last year has been enough to bring down above target inflation. The most recent indicators show consumption remains healthy and unemployment is near record lows. So, if you were a policymaker, what would you do? Stick or twist? Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-wings-of-a-dove-or-a-hawk As we approach potentially the most important round of central bank meetings to decide the future of interest rates, who are these important and powerful policymakers? Why do commentators often refer to them as either a hawk or a dove? This week we explore why central bank leaders can have such a profound influence on our financial world, not only today, but many years into our future. Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-bank-collapse-prompts-market-uncertainty https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-rate-rises-continue After calm eventually returned to investment markets following the panic caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), investors turned their attention to central banks. UK inflation unexpectedly rose in February, demonstrating policymakers are caught between a ‘rock and a hard place’. Will they still raise rates? Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-four-seasons Since the pandemic struck just over three years ago, investors have experienced extraordinary highs and lows. Most, I am sure, were hoping that the start to 2023 would bring more certainty and less volatility. Sadly, it feels like we have seen all four seasons in a busy first quarter where the ghosts of our financial past have reappeared. Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play before a short Easter break. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-conflicts-of-interest As calm returns to investment markets after a stormy first quarter, you would be forgiven for thinking that investors will soon be able to see light at the end of the current infamous investment cycle. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week warned that central banks face tough choices ahead that have the potential to catch more unsuspecting banks in a credit crisis amid a much gloomier outlook for the world’s economy. Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play after returning from the Easter Break. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-difficult-diagnosis As our financial world continues to evolve, price stability and maintaining conditions that help promote steady economic growth remain the benchmark for most central banks. The Bank of England, in pursuit of this goal, faces a difficult diagnosis at their next meeting to decide interest rates on 11 May. Balancing their desire to tame price rises, maintain confidence in the financial system and avoid pushing the economy into a deep recession, makes their decision finely balanced. Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-is-cash-now-king In the seventy years between last weekend’s coronation and our late Queen’s back in 1953, so much of our financial world has changed beyond recognition. After nearly 15 years of suffering near-zero rates, savers finally benefit from competitive returns on cash. The question many of you may now be asking is: Is cash now king? Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-potential-peak Last week, First Republic Bank became the latest casualty of the rapid rise in interest rates in the US. As expected, the Federal Reserve increased rates by 0.25%, but is this the pause many commentators have been anticipating? Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-tackling-terms Over the last three years, any new investor might be forgiven for thinking that investing is like riding the fastest rollercoaster at a theme park. However, when you step back and use time to provide perspective, investing becomes a question of appropriate planning. Investing is a long-term part of any financial plan, but how long is long-term? Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-bulging-basket After 30 years of historically low inflation, the last two years have been a very different story. After almost 15 years of low interest rates and stable price rises, central banks have been trying hard to limit the bulging basket of price rises. Will the latest data on inflation provide a sign that the medicine is finally starting to work? Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-bond-voyage Investing an appropriate share of your investment portfolio into bonds (also known as fixed income) to match your risk comfort has been a guiding principle for decades. Offering the potential to diversify your portfolio to smooth the long-term ride, bonds experienced a golden journey known as the ‘bond bull market’. However, for bond investors, last year was the worst since records began as interest rates soared and bond values plummeted. So, what does the future now hold for bond investors? Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-behavioural-bias Given how much of our lives have changed in the past 20 years, driven largely by technology and innovation, can these changes inform alternative ways of managing money? Human emotions can lead to strong behavioural biases which can sometimes cloud investment choices. What are the most common biases and how can systematic investing help to avoid emotional decision making? Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/a-quarter-in-the-markets-q1-2023 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/a-month-in-the-markets/a-month-in-the-markets-march-2023 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/a-month-in-the-markets/a-month-in-the-markets-june-2023 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/basic-on-bonds/bond-voyage https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-crossroads As the world economy powered into life after restrictions were lifted for the final time, pent-up demand and supply chain disruptions ignited an old enemy – inflation. Ever since, central banks have been playing catch-up andinterest rates have risen rapidly. However, as the Federal Reserve meets to discuss the next decision, they face somewhat of a crossroads. What path will they choose and what might that mean for investors? Our Senior Investment Specialist, Simon Durling, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-safe-as-houses The battle to tame rising prices is a complex one that policymakers must navigate carefully to avoid unintended consequences. Ever since the global financial crisis, mortgage borrowers have experienced a golden period of historically low interest rates, resulting in much lower monthly payments. The return of inflation and the response from central banks has brought this favourable environment to an abrupt end. When the Bank of England met this week to decide whether to increase interest rates, did they have one eye on the mortgage market? What does their decision mean for savers and investors? Simon Durling from Santander Asset Management shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-return-of-the-rising-sun In 1989, the Japanese Stock Market hit an all-time high following an asset price boom triggered by loose monetary policy. Faced with an overheating economy, policymakers began to raise interest rates, bursting the bubble, and the aftermath lasted far longer than anybody could have imagined. However, this year, share prices in Japan have made a remarkable recovery, prompting many investors to question whether this is the return of the rising sun or just investor speculation? Simon Durling from Santander Asset Management shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-half-time It could be argued that successful investing is more about patience and time than anything else. The journey can at times be bumpy, with events triggering volatility and uncertainty. Last year was the perfect example of when market and geopolitical events combined to serve up a cocktail of uncertainty making investing for some extremely challenging. As we reach half-time in 2023, what has happened so far and how has that affected different investments? What are the prospects for the remainder of this year and beyond? Simon Durling from Santander Asset Management shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-pay-problems Central banks have spent almost two years playing catch up as inflation returned building pressure on policymakers to respond. Their credibility rests with overcoming the price rises whilst attempting to navigate a soft economic landing. So far this year they have been waiting for the inflation pressure to ease before feeling able to press the pause button on rate rises. Will this week’s latest earnings and inflation data finally offer some respite? Simon Durling from Santander Asset Management shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/a-month-in-the-markets/a-month-in-the-markets-july-2023 In this latest edition our Multi Asset Solutions Team look at the challenges investment markets faced in June. Stock markets rose in June as a slowdown in US inflation offered hope that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its interest rate hiking cycle, improving the odds that the world’s biggest economy will avoid a recession. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-push-or-pull Ever since the pandemic arrived to trigger the first global wide shut down, the ripple effect continues to be felt in our shopping baskets, our savings rates, and our investment portfolios today. Supply disruption, the war in Ukraine and other unintended consequences make the challenge facing policymakers even more complicated. This week the eagerly awaited UK inflation data was released. What did it tell us about the impact of previous rate rises and how might it influence the Bank of England in their next interest rate decision? Simon Durling from Santander Asset Management shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-to-pause-for-thought Last month, the Federal Reserve decided to pause rate rises following an aggressive approach to monetary tightening, where they have raised rates at every meeting since March 2022. Finally, after many months of high inflation, rising prices appear to be cooling, therefore vindicating their approach. However, policymakers made a promise to investors at their last meeting to continue raising rates until the battle with inflation is won. Will this week’s Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) make them pause for thought? Simon Durling from Santander Asset Management shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-back-to-normal The Bank of England began the journey to normality in December 2021 when they increased interest rates from a mere 0.1% to 0.25%. Today, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the bank met to decide their next move, with market expectations for the 14th consecutive rise in rates. Did the latest UK inflation data influence the debate about not just this decision but future meetings for the remainder of this year? Importantly, what does this mean for savers and investors? Derek Barrow from Santander Asset Management shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/a-month-in-the-markets/a-month-in-the-markets-august-2023 In this latest edition our Multi Asset Solutions Team look at the challenges investment markets faced in July. Stock markets rose in July amid expectations that US and European interest rate hikes are nearing an end1 and that the global economy will grow more than previous International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts suggested.2 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/quarterly-perspectives-q2-2023 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-pricing-point This week represents an important week for the Bank of England. The latest inflation data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to show that rising prices are continuing to ease in line with expectations, while wages are rising faster than the bank would ideally like. Last week, the UK Economy grew more than forecast in the second quarter of this year, but with warnings of strong headwinds on the road ahead. What does all of this mean for policymakers and how might this impact savings and investments in the weeks and months ahead? Simon Durling from Santander Asset Management shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-china-in-crisis If you look back over modern history, arguably China experienced the greatest economic miracle in the shortest possible timescale. However, ever since the pandemic, China has struggled to navigate the balancing act of restricting the spread of the disease without damaging the immense financial progress it has achieved in the preceding 40 years. International investment markets appear to have begun to scrutinise the latest trends and economic data, highlighting concerns about the central government’s responses and whether they will be the effective medicine required to put China’s future growth prospects back in good health. What might this mean for investors and future market sentiment? Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-time-patience-and-persistence Ever since the Global Financial Crisis, the consequences for savers and investors have been profound. Policymakers slashed interest rates to near zero and printed vast quantities of new money to support our financial way of life. However, in the last two years, with the return of inflation, this approach has been reversed in the blink of an eye, bringing interest rates closer to historic norms. However, does this mean investing for the longer term has become unattractive? Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/a-month-in-the-markets/a-month-in-the-markets-september-2023 In this latest edition our Multi Asset Solutions Team look at the challenges investment markets faced in July. Stock markets rose in July amid expectations that US and European interest rate hikes are nearing an end1 and that the global economy will grow more than previous International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts suggested.2 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-triple-lock-dilemma The return of sustained higher inflation has triggered sharp increases in interest rates to cool demand. However, policymakers are faced with a combination of challenges that arguably will not be solved by just increasing the cost of borrowing. Rising prices have forced many employers to increase wages at their highest rate for more than a generation. Pensioners have also benefited from sharp rises in earnings due to the ‘Triple Lock’ introduced in 2010. Why is the current policy making matters worse for the Bank of England, and how might this affect future interest rate policy? Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-crunch-call Throughout the last few years, central banks have been under intense pressure to react to a fast-changing economic environment. Initially, they supported individuals and businesses when the global pandemic emerged by cutting the cost of borrowing. They then rapidly reversed this approach in order to combat inflation. As they approach the expected peak in interest rates, what are the risks of going too far, and importantly, what could be the consequences for both investors and borrowers? Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-slow-cooked-or-chargrilled Last week represented a tense week for both investors and borrowers. Crucial decisions about interest rates and, probably more importantly, future expectations were articulated by both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. With inflation falling more than expected and the economy in the UK slowing, the battle between the ‘hawks’ and the ’doves’ was a close call. What can investors and borrowers expect in the months ahead? Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-financial-mot-part-one As we move into the first few days of the last quarter of 2023, the change in our financial world appears to be entering a new phase. Policymakers trying to navigate this transition have come under immense scrutiny as they responded to higher inflation. It feels like a prudent time to take stock and assess the recent journey, checking whether UK Plc would pass a financial MOT. Given the current uncertainty and the challenges we face, do you think it would pass this test? If it failed, what would be the list of advisories necessary to meet the required standard for a roadworthy pass certificate? This week is part one of a two-part series covering the MOT test. State of Play takes a break next week, look out for part two when it returns. Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-financial-mot-part-two Following on from the first part of the blog two weeks ago, which covered inflation, explored the UK economy and used the MOT test example, this week we measure economic growth and employment. Last week, the latest data showed the UK economy remains resilient but fragile, backed up by new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This week sees a deluge of new data covering wages, vacancies and inflation, which should shed some light on the road ahead. The UK economy brakes may be worn, but do they need replacing? Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/a-month-in-the-markets/a-month-in-the-markets-october-2023 Share and bond prices declined across a wide range of markets in September as investors came to terms with the fact that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer as rising oil prices make it more difficult to reduce inflation. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/quarterly-perspectives-q3-2023 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-too-good-to-be-true The COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts are still being felt today, whether this be in those who tragically lost loved ones or those who still suffer long-term health issues. The financial consequences, apart from the additional huge burden of debt, have been disruption to the global supply chains and the return of inflation, which prompted the increase in global interest rates. The lesser-known consequence of people sat at home during lockdowns was a whole generation of new investors exploring the financial world, unaided and tempted by the spoils available through social media and online investment apps. Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-taking-stock The bitter and painful pill prescribed by policymakers to combat inflation has been much higher interest rates. Higher borrowing costs for both individuals and businesses take time to filter into the economy to tackle rising prices. Nearly two years and fourteen rate rises later, the Bank of England meets to decide whether the medicine has finally worked. Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/sam-uk-market-views-time-to-pause Market Views: Time to pause? https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/sam-uk-market-views-what-is-next-for-shares Market Views: What is next for shares? https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-battle-of-bulls-and-bears All central banks chose to pause interest rate rises last week. How will markets react upon reflection and what can investors expect? Those who look for opportunities and positive outcomes are often described as ‘bulls’ and others who expect the worst are called ‘bears’. Where do these terms originate from and what do they mean? Given that current economic data and company earnings are mixed pointing to uncertainty, who will win the battle in the months ahead? Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/sam-uk-market-views-market-views-uk-inflation-remains-stubborn Market views: UK Inflation remains stubborn https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/a-month-in-the-markets/a-month-in-the-markets-november-2023 Global stock markets fell for a third month in October after a sharp increase in bond yields triggered volatility across financial markets. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/sam-uk-market-views-whats-next-for-bonds Market Views: It's all about inflation and interest rates https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-relief-rally For policymakers, this week represents a nervous ride, praying for reasons to be cheerful. When central banks paused interest rate rises two weeks ago, their decision was based on previous data and expectations of future trends. Does the latest information on employment, wage rises, and inflation back up their expert opinion or warrant a rethink? Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-balancing-act This week represents a crucial week for the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. Facing a general election by the end of next year, his Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has an opportunity to set out their stall financially in this week’s Autumn Statement. Given the reaction to unfunded tax cuts in last year’s ‘mini budget’, they will have to tread very carefully to avoid a repeat market meltdown. How might this affect savers and investors? Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-financial-accountability The Bank of England has come in for much criticism in recent times from a wide range of different groups, from small investors to politicians. Having been late to identify a return of much higher inflation and its policymakers’ admitting flaws in their own forecasting tools, last week a Lord’s committee claimed the bank had not been held accountable for their role in maintaining a stable financial environment. Is this feedback fair and how should we define the role of a central bank? How did they become such an important cog in our financial world? Simon Durling, from Santander Asset Management, shares his thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/sam-uk-market-outlook-2024 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-banking-on-a-better-2024 This week marks the final time this year that the Bank of England (BoE), the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) announce their latest interest rates decisions and share their insight on the path for interest rates as we head into 2024. After a challenging year, does the latest economic data support a continued pause, or will the central banks change direction? The Commercial Team at Santander Asset Management shares their thoughts in the final State of Play of the year. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/a-month-in-the-markets/a-month-in-the-markets-december-2023 Shares experienced their biggest monthly rally in three years fueled by investor hopes that central banks are close to winning their battle with inflation. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-back-on-track Despite a challenging economic climate both at home and abroad, UK investors finished the year in welcome positive territory. The Commercial Team at Santander Asset Management shares their thoughts in the first State of Play of the year. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/sam-uk-market-views-looking-ahead Market Views: Looking ahead https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-not-all-is-what-it-seems By the time you read this week’s edition of the State of Play, what is often described as the most depressing day of the year, so called ‘Blue Monday’, this year falling on 15 January, will have passed. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-the-magnificent-seven The S&P 500, a market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States, hit new highs this week. This was mainly driven by seven stocks, dubbed the Magnificent Seven: Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. What are the reasons behind this and will it continue? The Commercial Team at Santander Asset Management share their thoughts in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/quarterly-perspectives-q4-2023 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-bulls-bears-and-ballots In the ever-changing landscape of global politics, investors often find themselves on the edge of their seats during election cycles, pondering the potential impact they may have on their investment portfolios. However, as we delve into the intricate dance between politics and investments, it becomes apparent that the relationship might be less significant than conventional wisdom suggests. In this week’s edition of State of Play, we explore the dynamic between elections in the UK and the US and the resilience of investment portfolios in the face of political shifts. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-all-eyes-on-the-uk A couple of weeks ago, State of Play looked at how shares in the US were performing, with a particular focus on the Magnificent Seven stocks (see here). This week, we go closer to home and take a look at UK shares. With UK shares currently struggling when compared to their US counterparts, what does the future hold? https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/what-is-holding-policymakers-back TUNE IN: Market Views: What's holding policymakers back? https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-us-dominates Recently released US January employment data showed that the resilience of the US economy continues after growing 2.5% in 2023. The Federal Reserve (Fed) insists that it is premature to expect ‘imminent’ rate cuts and as a consequence, the market has adjusted expectations. The current focus for markets continues to be on the 2023 4th quarter earnings season, with US numbers more positive than Europe. The Commercial Team at Santander Asset Management digs deeper in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-uk-recession-what-s-next Last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the latest UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the final three months of 2023, which fell 0.3%. As this followed a 0.1% fall in the previous quarter, the UK has entered into a technical recession, commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. What was the reason for the negative growth? Is it likely to continue? Santander Asset Management UK share their insights in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-2024-uk-spring-budget On 6 March 2024, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, delivered what could be the last Budget before the upcoming general election. As many commentators had predicted, the focus of the Spring Budget was on national insurance, tobacco duty, ‘non-domiciled’ status and child benefits. So, what are the key takeaways from this announcement? Santander Asset Management UK shares their insights in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-are-we-there-yet This week, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) announced in their respective meetings that they are making no changes to the current interest rates. Prior to the meetings, markets and economists expected the Fed to make cuts in June and the BoE to make cuts sometime in the summer.1 With inflation proving tricky to tame, have either of the central banks hinted of a change in course? Santander Asset Management shares their insights in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-market-update It has been a couple of weeks since the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England announced their latest interest rate decisions, with both central banks choosing to keep interest rates the same (read more here). The decisions and sentiment from the meetings were well received as they were in line with the broad market consensus for rate cuts. Since then, what has been happening in the UK and global stock markets? Santander Asset Management shares their insights in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-what-if In February, State of Play discussed the impacts of elections on the stock market (you can read this here). The broad consensus from the article was that the mainstream media amplify the short-term noise around electoral events while experienced investors embrace their long-term goals, trusting in the overall fundamentals, with data not showing any significant differences to any other non-election year. Although this is true by historic standards, with Donald Trump seemingly back in the running to become the next US president, the uncertainty and unpredictability of a Trump presidency could understandably cause some concerns for investors. What if Donald Trump and the Republican Party win the US election? How would markets react? Santander Asset Management discusses in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/are-interest-rate-cuts-on-the-horizon TUNE IN: Market Views: Are interest rate cuts on the horizon? https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/quarterly-perspectives-q1-2024 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-what-happened-next Earlier in 2024, State of Play covered the UK entering a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of negative growth. In the article, we gave our outlook on what was likely to happen next, anticipating that the technical recession would be fairly mild and pass quickly. With new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released for tEarlier in 2024, State of Play covered the UK entering a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of negative growth. In the article, we gave our outlook on what was likely to happen next, anticipating that the technical recession would be fairly mild and pass quickly. With new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released for the first two months of 2024, is the UK technical recession expected to be short-lived? Santander Asset Management UK shares their insights in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-a-blossoming-start Once again, it’s that time of year when the gardens of the Royal Hospital Chelsea are transformed into the world’s leading floral design spectacle, the RHS Chelsea Flower Show. Next week, leading garden designers will be competing at Chelsea for a coveted RHS Gold medal after months of rigorous planning and the nurturing of green shoots recovering from the rigours of the wet British winter. Is the UK economy showing signs of blooming or is more work needed to remove the weeds? Santander Asset Management UK shares their insights in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-30-may-2024 Last week’s important economic data was overshadowed by political developments, with prime minister Rishi Sunak announcing that an early general election will take place on 4 July, several months earlier than most political commentators had anticipated. Did this announcement have an impact on financial markets and the UK economy? Santander Asset Management discusses in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-13-june-2024 Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) chose to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75%. The bank’s move marked a divergence from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which is maintaining high interest rates in the face of stubborn inflation. With the ECB being the first major central bank to cut interest rates, are others likely to follow, and what does this mean for markets? Read more in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-20-june-2024 In two weeks’ time, the UK public will cast their vote and decide who will control the next government. Both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party have recently released their respective manifestos. This week’s State of Play looks at some of the pledges and what this could mean for your money. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-11-july-2024 After 6 weeks of campaigning, the dust has finally settledsettled, and the UK has chosen a new government. Labour won with a significant majority – gaining over 400 seats and an estimated 35% of the vote, the lowest share for a governing party in history. The country's new Prime Minister Keir Starmer has appointed 22 Labour MPs and peers to key cabinet positions - including a record 11 women - after the party's landslide election victory. This week’s State of Play looks at the market reaction to the election result and what might be next for the UK under the new Labour government. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-25-july-2024 A week is a long time in politics, as demonstrated in the past couple of weeks in the US. With a failed assignation attempt on Donald Trump and Joe Bidden succumbing to pressure and stepping down from running for president, this week’s State of Play discusses the current situation in US politics and what it could mean for markets. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-8-august-2024 After 6 weeks of campaigning, the dust has finally settled, and the UK has chosen a new government. Labour won with a significant majority – gaining over 400 seats and an estimated 35% of the vote, the lowest share for a governing party in history.1 The country's new Prime Minister Keir Starmer has appointed 22 Labour MPs and peers to key cabinet positions - including a record 11 women - after the party's landslide election victory. This week’s State of Play looks at the market reaction to the election result and what might be next for the UK under the new Labour government. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/quarterly-perspectives-q2-2024 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-panic-over Last week was a turbulent week for financial markets, with investors beginning to worry that the US economy could be falling towards a recession. A disappointing US jobs report caused the initial sell-off as the rise in unemployment breached a well-regarded recession indicator based on labour market conditions. This week’s State of Play looks at what happened and our thoughts going forward. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play-panic-over Last week was a turbulent week for financial markets, with investors beginning to worry that the US economy could be falling towards a recession. A disappointing US jobs report caused the initial sell-off as the rise in unemployment breached a well-regarded recession indicator based on labour market conditions. This week’s State of Play looks at what happened and our thoughts going forward. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-the-rise-of-nvidia The surge in artificial intelligence (AI) has fuelled a boom in technology stocks, with companies capable of supporting this growth seeing the greatest benefits. The Magnificent Seven stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) have capitalised on the expansion of AI, playing a significant role in the stock market's recent positive performance. Among this group, Nvidia may be the least familiar name, yet it has experienced the most remarkable growth due to AI, and now ranks as the world's second most valuable company. Let’s dive deeper into the story behind Nvidia's remarkable ascent in this week's State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-making-waves In recent months there has been an increase in market volatility, as investors started to question the outlook for economic growth in the US. Until now, the US has posted solid enough numbers, however, there’s growing concern that the recently released labour market data could point towards a downturn in growth. With employment being such an important driver for economic growth, questions have been raised on the possibility of a future recession. Santander Asset Management digs deeper in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-finally Last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) finally cut rates for the first time in over four years, lowering its benchmark interest rate to a target range between 4.75% and 5.00%. An interest rate cut was expected, however, the Fed decided to cut by half a point instead of a quarter as many predicted. The Bank of England (BoE) also met last week but this time they decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Santander Asset Management digs deeper into the announcements in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/the-next-phase Market Views: The Next Phase https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-hiring-spree Last Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released their nonfarm payroll data for September. The data painted a rosier picture of the US economy and could perhaps defy fears of an economic slowdown in the US showing that the economy remains resilient. Santander Asset Management dives deeper into the data in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/quarterly-perspectives-q3-2024 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-budget-special Nearly four months after taking office, the Labour government unveiled its debut budget yesterday. Anticipating a significant change in direction, markets were braced for a major fiscal shake-up after years of a Conservative government. This week’s State of Play looks at the key topics from the Budget, the reaction of financial markets and our thoughts going forward. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-markets-under-trump As the dust settles on the recent US presidential election, the financial world is alive with speculation about what a Trump presidency could mean for markets. With Donald Trump securing the presidency, and the Republicans potentially maintaining control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the US finds itself at a pivotal moment that could shape economic policies and market dynamics for years to come. Santander Asset Management discusses what the election outcome could mean for markets in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/coming-up-trumps Market Views: Coming up trumps https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-trade-tariffs-shields-or-shackles In our previous State of Play we discussed the market reaction since it was announced that Donald Trump and the Republican Party had won the race for the presidential election. This week, the President-elect has suggested that he would impose massive tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico when he takes office in January, an announcement that left the markets in fear of a new trade war with Beijing. This week’ State of Play looks at the importance of exports and imports on local and global economies and the potential impact increased tariffs could have. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/annual-market-outlook In recent years, financial markets have come through turbulent waters due to unprecedented challenges: negative interest rates in the Eurozone; a global pandemic and the resulting supply chain disruption; finally, a severe inflationary shock. The global economy was beset with uncertainty at every turn and, in response, policymakers had to take emergency measures and proceed with extreme caution. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-back-on-track-part-two In the first iteration of Back on Track earlier this year, State of Play considered the performance of financial markets in the final months of 2023 and early 2024. After a difficult economic climate in 2022 that persisted for large parts of 2023, markets began to pick up, with US shares performing particularly well. We said in the previous issue that 2024 will probably not turn out as expected, which was certainly true. However, investors in diversified portfolios have continued to benefit from solid market returns. Santander Asset Management dives deeper into this year’s financial markets in this week’s State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/final-thoughts Market Views: Final thoughts https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-market-resolutions As we usher in a new year, many of us take a moment to reflect on what we've achieved, as well as set resolutions for the year ahead. While the stock markets themselves cannot make resolutions, we can attempt to envision what a ‘New Year’s resolution’ for a particular market might look like. In this week’s State of Play, Santander Asset Management discusses a few key aspirations that could guide the markets in the coming year. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-gilt-y-pleasure What a difference a day makes. On Tuesday, a chorus of commentators, some less than impartial, declared the UK’s economic situation a crisis, piling pressure on the Chancellor. By Wednesday morning, UK inflation had dropped to a steady 2.5%1, and US inflation data later in the day proved similarly benign. The result? A sharp rally in the gilt market and a growing consensus that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in a fortnight. Santander Asset Management digs deeper in this week's State of Play. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/quarterly-perspectives-q4-2024 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/december-in-60-seconds Market Views: December in 60 seconds https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/january-in-60-seconds Market Views: January in 60 seconds https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-focus-on-tariffs Over the past week, the world has witnessed a series of tariffs being imposed by the President of the United States, Donald Trump. This has led to substantial declines in global shares and therefore directly impacted investment portfolios. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/february-in-60-seconds Market Views: February in 60 seconds https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/march-in-60-seconds Market Views: March in 60 seconds https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-update-focus-on-tariffs In our previous State of Play, we discussed the impact of the series of tariffs imposed by the President of the United States, Donald Trump. At the time, this led to substantial declines in global shares. This week’s update provides some insight into what has happened to markets since. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/april-in-60-seconds Market Views: April in 60 seconds https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/quarterly-perspectives-q1-2025 https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/state-of-play/state-of-play-final-focus-on-tariffs It’s been over a month since we first talked about the effects of the new US tariffs. In our second update, we explored the impact of the temporary pause in Trump’s tariffs. Now, in the final commentary, we reflect on what happened and consider how the markets have changed over the past few weeks. https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/tune-in/may-in-60-seconds https://www.santanderassetmanagement.co.uk/markets-insights/market-updates/annual-market-outlook-2026